October: turbulent but positive month on the stock markets

Positive returns in October

October was a month of contrasts. In Europe, inflation rose further due to geopolitical unrest, but the economy grew faster than expected. Interest rates fell slightly and large companies made enormous profits. 

In the end, all Peaks portfolios rose in value, driven by US and European stocks and the rise in bond prices. The positive returns ranged from +0.5% for the Adventurous portfolio to +0.8% for the Cautious portfolio. 

Table 1: Net returns of Peaks portfolios

*On 22 November 2017

Important to know: These net returns reflect Peaks' portfolios in October 2026, all of 2026 and since the launch of Peaks, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The above figures assume a portfolio value of €10,000 without any deposits or withdrawals. If you made deposits or withdrawals this month, your personal return may differ. Your return will also vary if you have invested less or more than €10,000 due to the monthly fees Peaks charges.

Because both bonds and stocks rose in value, it was a calm month in terms of price fluctuations.

Table 2: Risk of Peaks portfolios

*On 22 November 2017

Important to know: This table shows the risk levels of the 4 Peaks portfolios over different time periods (last month, this year, and the average since Peaks launched). Risk, also known as volatility, reflects the variation in annualised returns and is measured using the standard deviation of daily net returns converted to an annual basis.

Inflation rises, but so does economic growth

The macroeconomic figures for October and early November indicate that the global economy is still growing strongly. However, inflation is high due to the conflict between the United States and Iran. 

In the eurozone, inflation accelerated in October from 3.8% to 4.0% year on year. This is the highest level in more than 3 years and well above the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of just under 2%. The increase was almost entirely caused by high energy prices. Core inflation (inflation excluding volatile energy and food prices) was stable at 2.5%.

So inflation is high. On the other hand, the European economy grew twice as fast in the third quarter as analysts had expected (+1.3% on an annual basis). The picture in the United States is also positive. The US economy is growing considerably (+3.4% on an annual basis). This is also reflected in US producer confidence, which rose further than analysts had expected in both October and November. 

Energy prices fall after October peak

The driving force behind the inflationary pressure is geopolitical unrest. In October, the price of a barrel of Brent crude shot up to a peak of almost $117 per barrel. The rise was directly fuelled by fierce war rhetoric from the US and Israel: threats of large-scale new attacks on Iranian targets.

High energy prices feed through into companies' fuel and production costs. As a result, prices for consumers rise and inflation increases.

Fortunately, the mood changed in early November: the oil price fell by more than 11% within a week, to around $102 per barrel. This was due to hopes of a breakthrough at the negotiating table. Through diplomatic mediation by Qatar, talks between Washington and Tehran got going again. After US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that the US prefers diplomatic solutions over military steps, the oil market calmed down.  

Profit growth of listed companies higher than expected 

You would expect rising inflation and the threat of war to push prices down, but the global economy is strong and corporate profits are still growing substantially. According to data provider FactSet, the net profit margin for US companies in the well-known S&P 500 index was no less than 14.9% in the third quarter. That is the second-highest profit margin in more than 15 years.

Tech companies in particular stand out, with spectacular margins of over 32%. Yet other companies are also doing well. More than 82% of the US companies that have published figures so far did better than analysts had expected.

Table 3: Net returns of the index funds included in the standard Peaks portfolios

Important to know: These net returns reflect the performance of index funds in October 2026, all of 2026, and since Peaks launched, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Democrats win the midterms

The results of the midterm elections show a political landslide in the United States. The Democrats have managed to win a majority in the US Congress and the Senate, which sends a strong signal and forms a political counterweight to President Donald Trump's agenda.

The initial reaction on the financial markets is positive. The US 10-year interest rate fell and stock markets rose in value. Investors expect the US government to borrow less money now. This leads to lower interest rates, which has a positive effect on both bonds and stocks.

What does this mean for your Peaks portfolio?

October was a classic example of a stock market month full of 'noise'. All sorts of things happened on the world stage, interest rates and inflation remained unpredictable and prices reacted immediately to all the news.

As an investor, it is important to keep your eyes firmly on the horizon. Fluctuations are simply part of investing. Historically speaking, it is actually still relatively calm on the stock market at the moment, even though that may not match how you feel.

Sticking to your strategy, investing in a diversified way and depositing a fixed amount every month helps you absorb the peaks and troughs in the long term. You automatically buy when the markets are somewhat lower, and you benefit when calm returns and strong corporate profits push prices up again. So keep a cool head this autumn, and let your money steadily do its work!