Stock markets relieved after ceasefire news

The Peaks portfolios in March

March was a challenging month for investors. The year began hopefully, but macro-economic setbacks and escalation in the Middle East pulled global markets down significantly throughout the month.

This was reflected in the returns of the Peaks portfolios: all of them dipped into the red. The higher-risk portfolios took the hardest hits. Fortunately, prices rose sharply again after Iran and the United States agreed to a ceasefire: the portfolios are back in the black compared to the beginning of 2026.

Table 1: Net returns of Peaks portfolios

Important to know: These net returns reflect Peaks' portfolios in March 2026, up until 9 April 2026, all of 2026 and since the launch of Peaks, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The above figures assume a portfolio value of €10,000 without any deposits or withdrawals. If you made deposits or withdrawals this month, your personal return may differ. Your return will also vary if you have invested less or more than €10,000 due to the monthly fees Peaks charges.

The sharp decline and significant price fluctuations in March are clearly visible in the portfolios' risk levels, which have recently been higher than normal.

Table 2: Risk of Peaks portfolios

Important to know: This table shows the risk levels of the 4 Peaks portfolios over different time periods (last month, this year, and the average since Peaks launched). Risk, also known as volatility, reflects the variation in annualised returns and is measured using the standard deviation of daily net returns converted to an annual basis.

Blockade Strait of Hormuz

The primary source of unrest was the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices skyrocketed. Normally, 20% of global oil and gas exports pass through this strait, but the blockade prevented ships from passing. The price of oil briefly rose above $100 per barrel. An energy crisis seemed imminent.

Stock markets reacted strongly to this, as high energy prices can lead to a global economic recession. Many investors sold their stocks, fearing recession and higher inflation—a combination also known as ‘stagflation’.

Companies in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets were particularly hard hit due to their dependence on energy from the Middle East, with losses exceeding 7% in March. American companies and stocks, which are less dependent on energy imports, suffered less.

Table 3: Net returns of the index funds included in the standard Peaks portfolios

Important to know: These net returns reflect the performance of index funds in March 2026, all of 2026, and since Peaks launched, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Geopolitical calm (temporarily) restored

Fortunately, sentiment shifted on Wednesday 8 April, following reports of a two-week ceasefire as a step towards a definitive end to the war. Investors' fears of a prolonged conflict and global recession immediately diminished.

As a result, the Amsterdam stock exchange experienced its best day in ages, shooting up by +3.2%. Energy-intensive companies and the semiconductor sector (such as ASML) benefited in particular. The picture was similar in the United States; the leading S&P 500 index rose by +2.5%.

Once again: persistence is rewarded

After the heavy losses of March, the first week of April brought much-needed recovery. This is good news, as there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the truce between Iran and the United States. Hopefully, the ceasefire will hold. However, keep in mind that the markets are likely to remain volatile for a while.

It’s important to understand how quickly sentiment can pivot: from positive to negative, and back to positive again. This is why it’s so important for an investor to stay the course during turbulent times. If you persist and continue to invest regularly, you can even benefit from periods of low prices: history shows that, so far, the stock market has recovered from every crisis.