Unrest in the Middle East: what does it mean for your investments?

You’ve probably seen the headlines. The US and Israel carried out attacks on Iran this weekend, and Ayatollah Khamenei has reportedly been killed. Iran has responded by launching missiles and drones at countries it sees as acting on behalf of the US.

Tensions are rising fast, and the markets reacted almost immediately. You can see that reflected in your Peaks app. So far, the dip hasn’t been dramatic, but that nagging thought may still creep in: should I sell now, before things get worse?

Our take? Take a breath. Put the kettle on. Zoom out and look at the bigger picture.

The stock market has thick skin

Of course, moments like this bring uncertainty. This is completely normal.

History does show one clear pattern, though: markets have recovered from every major crisis so far.

Take a look at the long-term chart of the S&P 500 Index. Since the 1930s, the world has been through more than a few shocks:

• The crash of 1929 and the Great Depression
• The Second World War
• Periods of extremely high inflation, the Vietnam War and the Cuban Missile Crisis
• The dot-com bubble in 2000 and the 2008 financial crisis
• More recently, the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine and last year’s import tariff tensions

Every single time, there were investors convinced the damage was permanent. Every single time, markets eventually stabilised, recovered and went on to reach new highs.

That doesn’t mean markets move in a straight line. They don’t. Drops can be sharp and uncomfortable, and recovery can take time. Past performance also doesn’t guarantee future results.

It does show something important, though: the global economy has proven remarkably resilient over the long term, and broad stock markets have tended to trend upwards despite wars, crises and political turmoil.

The best tactic: keep investing regularly

Trying to guess the perfect moment to get out – and then back in again – is incredibly difficult, even for professional investors. Miss just a handful of the market’s best recovery days and your long-term returns can look very different.

Regular investing helps you avoid that guessing game. You invest when markets are high, and you invest when markets are low. When prices fall, your fixed deposit buys more shares. When prices rise, the value of what you already own increases. Over time, that spreads your risk across different market moments.

That doesn’t make investing risk-free. Markets can fall further, and they can stay down longer than you expect. You should only invest money you don’t need in the short term, and always make sure your financial buffer is in place first.

Still, history suggests that patience and consistency have often been rewarded. So before reacting to headlines, it can help to pause, zoom out, and stick to the plan you made when things felt calm.

So, what should you do now?

Actually... probably nothing at all.

• Stay calm: Don't let yourself be distracted by the short-term volatility or headlines about the war and how it might escalate further.

• Stick to your plan: You have a long-term goal. That goal hasn’t changed today, even though the world feels turbulent right now.

• Don’t check too often: You don’t need to look at your returns every day. It only causes unnecessary stress.

The world will always be  unpredictable, but the long-term power of the stock market isn’tt. Trust your strategy, have patience, and let time do the work for you—even if the road there feels a little rough right now.