Positive momentum on the stock market
The Peaks portfolios performed well in September and have almost recovered from April's dip.
September: a good month for Peaks portfolios
In September, all Peaks portfolios increased in value, with returns ranging from +0.8% for Cautious to +1.9% for Adventurous. This means that all four Peaks portfolios have almost recovered from the crash in April this year (see the table below).
Please note that the table doesn’t include periodic deposit options. If you invest a fixed amount per month, a percentage of your salary or your roundups, you will have invested at lower prices in recent months and are now benefiting accordingly from the recovery. There’s a good chance that you’re already back in the black.
Table 1: Net returns of Peaks portfolios
| Peaks portfolio | September | 2025 | Average annual since Peaks launch | Total since Peaks launch |
| Cautious | 0.8% | -1.1% | 2.2% | 21.7% |
| Balanced | 1.2% | -1.3% | 4.2% | 42.4% |
| Ambitious | 1.5% | -1.6% | 6.3% | 66.1% |
| Adventurous | 1.9% | -1.9% | 8.2% | 92.2% |
Important to know: These net returns reflect Peaks' portfolios in September 2025, all of 2025 and since the launch of Peaks, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The above figures assume a portfolio value of €10,000 without any deposits or withdrawals. If you made deposits or withdrawals this month, your personal return may differ. Your return will also vary if you have invested less or more than €10,000 due to the monthly fees Peaks charges.
Table 2: Risk of Peaks portfolios
| Risk (volatility) | September | 2025 | Avarage annual since Peaks launch |
| Cautious | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% |
| Balanced | 3.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% |
| Ambitious | 4.9% | 9.6% | 9.7% |
| Adventurous | 6.0% | 12.5% | 12.1% |
Important to know: This table shows the risk levels of the four Peaks portfolios over different time periods (last month, this year, and the average since Peaks launched). Risk, also known as volatility, reflects the variation in annualised returns and is measured using the standard deviation of daily net returns converted to an annual basis.
Dollar dampens returns on US stocks
What’s striking this year is that although the US stock market is actually performing very well, this isn’t really reflected in your returns. At the end of September, the well-known S&P 500 index was almost 15% higher than it was at the beginning of the year. However, measured in euros, this amounts to only slightly more than 1%.
This significant difference is due to the sharp decline in the value of the US dollar. As a result, little remains in euros of the positive returns on US shares.
The good news is that exchange rates are historically very volatile and tend to fluctuate up and down. At some point, the dollar will rise in value again, which will have a positive impact on the returns on your Peaks portfolio. So here too, the same applies: keep your eye on the long term and stick to your strategy. It isn’t wise to try to predict the dollar/euro exchange rate or to actively respond to it – currencies are too volatile for that.
Greater difference between American and European economies
More interestingly, the differences in economic growth between the United States and Europe are increasing.
The American economy is slowly cooling down. This can be seen, for example, in the fact that fewer and fewer new jobs have been created in recent months. Nevertheless, the underlying situation is still quite good: unemployment is low and consumers continue to spend money, thereby supporting the economy. Analysts also expect the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) to further lower interest rates in the coming months to support the economy, provided that core inflation remains stable or falls. That would be good news for investors.
In Europe, the outlook is much less rosy. Economic growth is stagnating and inflation is rising again. This puts the European Central Bank (ECB) in a difficult position. Higher inflation gives the ECB little room to lower interest rates, as this would lead to even higher inflation. Raising interest rates to curb inflation is also difficult, as this could push the economy into recession.
On the other hand, analysts expect the differences between US interest rates (falling) and European interest rates (remaining unchanged) to narrow in the coming months. This could benefit the US dollar exchange rate.
Table 3: Net returns of index funds in standard Peaks portfolios
| Stocks | ISIN | September | 2025 | Total since launch Peaks |
| North America | LU0629460089 | 2.2% | -5.4% | 160.5% |
| Europe | IE00B52VJ196 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 68.0% |
| Asia Pacific | LU0629460832 | -0.2% | -0.7% | 35.5% |
| Emerging markets | IE00BYVJRP78 | 5.5% | 10.8% | 37.9% |
| Bonds | ||||
| European gov. bonds | IE00B4WXJJ64 | 0.4% | -0.9% | -5.3% |
| European corp. bonds | LU0484968812 | 0.4% | 1.5% | 3.5% |
Important to know: These net returns reflect the performance of index funds in September 2025, all of 2025, and since Peaks launched, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Tom
CEO & Founder
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