Strong start to the 2026 market year

Stock market off to a good start

2026 started well on the stock market. In January, the Peaks portfolios achieved returns ranging from +1% for the Cautious portfolio to 1.9% for the Adventurous portfolio. The volatility of returns during the month was also somewhat lower than historically (see the second table). On balance, it was a good month for investors.

Table 1: Net returns of Peaks portfolios

Important to know: These net returns reflect Peaks' portfolios in January 2026, all of 2026 and since the launch of Peaks, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The above figures assume a portfolio value of €10,000 without any deposits or withdrawals. If you made deposits or withdrawals this month, your personal return may differ. Your return will also vary if you have invested less or more than €10,000 due to the monthly fees Peaks charges.

Table 2: Risk of Peaks portfolios

Important to know: This table shows the risk levels of the 4 Peaks portfolios over different time periods (last month, this year, and the average since Peaks launched). Risk, also known as volatility, reflects the variation in annualised returns and is measured using the standard deviation of daily net returns converted to an annual basis.

Stock markets break records: S&P 500 hits 7,000 points

January 2026 was a month for the history books, as stock market records were broken. The Amsterdam stock exchange index AEX broke through the magical 1,000-point barrier and the American S&P 500 reached the historic level of 7,000 points. Psychologically speaking, these are important moments: investors get the feeling that the stock markets have passed a certain resistance level and will continue to grow indefinitely. The media amplify the excitement by writing extensively about it.

But ultimately, these kinds of figures don't mean much. It doesn't really matter whether the AEX index passes 1,000 points, 998 points or 997 points. Ultimately, the 1,000-point mark is just a stop along an upward trend. Anyone who got out when the AEX index was “very high” at 500 or 900 points missed out on the growth that followed. In short: don't be swayed by the symbolism of these kinds of numbers, but stay true to your plan.

Solid economic figures in the US

The US economy is growing steadily despite political turbulence. The latest figures indicate that things are going better than a few months ago. Producer confidence in the economy has increased significantly and consumer confidence also appears to be recovering, although it is still low in historical terms. Consumers are also spending a little more, which is positive for economic growth.

The eurozone economy is growing moderately, at just 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025.  Furthermore, inflation fell to 1.7% in January, the lowest level since September 2024. Core inflation, excluding the effects of oil and food prices, is still at 2.2%. This is still slightly above the European Central Bank (ECB) target of 2%. The ECB is therefore not expected to adjust interest rates for the time being.

Emerging markets steal the show

The region that performed best in January, with +6.2%, was “emerging markets”. These are economies that are developing rapidly, but which also face (political) instability and rapidly changing exchange rates. Examples include China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia and countries such as Taiwan and South Korea.

These markets are currently performing well because they are benefiting from the weaker US dollar and the AI revolution. Countries such as Taiwan and South Korea, for example, manufacture a lot of semiconductors and hardware for (American) AI data centres.

Table 3: Net returns of index funds in standard Peaks portfolios

Important to know: These net returns reflect the performance of index funds in January 2026, all of 2026, and since Peaks launched, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.