Rocky 2025 and scenarios for 2026

Despite all the bumps and potholes of 2025, the Peaks portfolios showed resilience. Time to take stock and look ahead. How did your investments perform last year? And what can we expect from 2026?

2025 at a glance

Off to a flying start

The year got off to a good start. Despite geopolitical tensions following Donald Trump's inauguration, all portfolios were in the green in January. Returns ranged from +0.9% (Cautious) to +2.5% (Adventurous).

Spring: trade tensions and the “April crash”

In February, the mood changed. Investors feared import tariffs for Canada, Mexico and China, which put pressure on stock prices. In March, fears of recession caused even more turmoil. The low point was reached in early April. After Trump's “Liberation Day” (the announcement of the import tariffs), stocks took a heavy hit.

The road to recovery

Fortunately, Trump quickly backtracked and the tariff policy was postponed, resulting in a spectacular recovery. On 9 April 2025, the S&P 500 even rose by 9.5% in a single day! This recovery continued in May.

Summer: sustainability vs. weapons

The summer months were relatively quiet, but one thing stood out. Sustainable ETFs (which you invest in at Peaks) lagged behind “regular”, non-sustainable funds. This is because Peaks excludes arms manufacturers, while arms stocks performed well due to the many conflicts around the world. As a sustainable investor, you missed out on this specific return. On the other hand, you avoided supporting potentially harmful and unethical practices.

Autumn: interest rates down, stock market up

Autumn started off sunny when the US central bank (the Fed) lowered interest rates, which was good news for stock prices. The spring crash was completely offset. Unfortunately, a US government shutdown and disappointing job figures threw a spanner in the works. We ended the year with an uneventful, yet slightly positive December.

2025 in figures

To be fair, the Peaks portfolios achieved modest returns in 2025: from -0.2% for the Cautious portfolio to +0.6% for the Adventurous portfolio (after deduction of costs).

This may be a little disappointing, but it's part of the game. Years like this happen.

Good to know: if you continued to invest throughout the year, there's a good chance that your personal return is higher than the figures in the table below. This is because you bought extra stocks at a bargain price during the April dip. When prices rose again, this worked to your advantage.

Table 1: Net returns of Peaks portfolios

Important to know: These net returns reflect Peaks' portfolios in December 2025, all of 2025 and since the launch of Peaks, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The above figures assume a portfolio value of €10,000 without any deposits or withdrawals. If you made deposits or withdrawals this month, your personal return may differ. Your return will also vary if you have invested less or more than €10,000 due to the monthly fees Peaks charges.

Table 2: Risk of Peaks portfolios

Important to know: This table shows the risk levels of the 4 Peaks portfolios over different time periods (last month, this year, and the average since Peaks launched). Risk, also known as volatility, reflects the variation in annualised returns and is measured using the standard deviation of daily net returns converted to an annual basis.

Why aren't the stock market records reflected in your Peaks return?

You may have read in the news that the American stock market S&P 500 rose by as much as 16%. And you might be wondering why this isn't reflected in your own Peaks return.

This is due to the exchange rate. In 2025, the US dollar depreciated significantly against the euro (from $1.02 to $1.17). As a result:

• your US stocks increased in value in dollars
• but those dollars were worth a lot less when converted to euros

Simply put, your capital gains were “eaten up” by the weak dollar. Frustrating, but thankfully, the reverse is also true. If the dollar strengthens in the future, you’ll receive this as a “free” bonus on top of your return.

What will 2026 bring?

No one can predict the future, and every analyst has their own expectations for 2026. Nevertheless, we can roughly distinguish three possible scenarios:

• The dream scenario. Low inflation, a thriving economy and AI driving growth. Rising stock markets.
• Stagflation. Inflation rises while economic growth stagnates. This causes a lot of volatility on the stock market.
• The doom scenario. Interest rates and unrest push the economy into recession after all.

Our tip for 2026

It’s tempting to adjust your strategy based on predictions like these. But at Peaks, we don't believe in crystal balls. 2025 proved this point: those who sold their assets due to fear during the April crash missed out on the best recovery days.

Investors who remained calm (and continued to invest) were ultimately the winners.

So stay calm, continue depositing (what you can afford to lose), and let time do its work. For the long-term investor, whether 2026 turns out to be a smooth journey or a bumpy ride – it's all part of the process.

Happy New Year!