Indian Summer at the stock exchange

October: a great month for stock markets

In October, all Peaks portfolios increased in value, with returns ranging from +1.8% for Cautious to as much as +3.5% for Adventurous. These are very high monthly returns. Thanks to the positive sentiment, all Peaks portfolios are back in positive territory compared to the beginning of this year. The crash in the Spring has been overcome. 

Table 1: Net returns of Peaks portfolios

Important to know: These net returns reflect Peaks' portfolios in October 2025, all of 2025 and since the launch of Peaks, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The above figures assume a portfolio value of €10,000 without any deposits or withdrawals. If you made deposits or withdrawals this month, your personal return may differ. Your return will also vary if you have invested less or more than €10,000 due to the monthly fees Peaks charges.

The positive sentiment also affects the risk of your portfolio. Portfolio volatility was significantly lower in October compared to the rest of the year.

Table 2: Risk of Peaks portfolios

Important to know: This table shows the risk levels of the 4 Peaks portfolios over different time periods (last month, this year, and the average since Peaks launched). Risk, also known as volatility, reflects the variation in annualised returns and is measured using the standard deviation of daily net returns converted to an annual basis.

Interest rate cut and US shutdown

The positive news for investors came from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), which lowered interest rates by 0.25% at the end of October. Stock markets had already risen earlier in the month, resulting in high returns on US stocks.

An interest rate cut is supposed to stimulate the economy and is good for the value of investments. But the Fed didn't cut interest rates because the US economy is doing so well: it mainly shows that the Fed is more concerned about the cooling US economy than about inflation. The latter remained quite high at 3.0% in September.

A second important development was that the US government shut down at the beginning of October. The reason: the Republicans and Democrats failed to agree in time on the new budget, which should have come into effect on October 1st. Because no budget had (yet) been agreed, the US government suspended all tasks that were not strictly necessary. As a result, approximately 1.4 million government employees were furloughed and did not receive their salaries.

The shutdown has now been lifted, but it all wasn't good for sentiment in the United States. Nor was it great for the economy: at the beginning of November, we saw the negative consequences of this reflected in stock returns.

In Europe, things are a lot calmer. Inflation, the measure of how fast prices rise, went up slightly in September – from 2% to 2.2%. This means that inflation is still close to the 2% target set by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB therefore did not lower interest rates, which remained at 2.0%.

Diversification is key

October shows why it's crucial to diversify your investments. Diversifying across different regions (such as the US and Europe) is very important. If one region is struggling (the US), another, more stable region (Europe) can keep your portfolio balanced. Even though it can sometimes be tempting to respond actively to news, for your long-term plan it's better to simply stick to your strategy (and periodically rebalance your portfolio).

Table 3: Net returns of index funds in standard Peaks portfolios

Important to know: These net returns reflect the performance of index funds in October 2025, all of 2025, and since Peaks launched, after deducting Peaks, fund, and transaction fees. The value of investments can fluctuate, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.